Red Tide: First Latina to Represent South Texas' District 15 is a Republican
Florida wasn't the only state with its own 'red wave'
The first Latina to ever represent South Texas’ 15th Congressional District will also be the first Republican to ever do so. Monica de la Cruz, insurance agent and single mom-turned-politician, is Congresswoman-elect. Held by Democrats for 150 years, the district was redrawn after the 2020 census by Republicans, which was only supposed to make the district “more competitive,” by approximately two percentage points, some said. “Progressive” Democrat, Michelle Vallejo of Mission however, lost her bid to keep 15 Blue, by 12,956 votes or 8.5 percent of the vote, in a race dubbed by pollsters, in the run-up to election day, as a “toss up.”
De la Cruz lost in 2020 to incumbent Democrat, Vicente Gonzalez, by less than three points, even though he doubly outspent her. Trump also came historically close to winning the largely Latino 15 that year, losing by less than two points. After 15 was redrawn in 2021, Gonzalez fled to neighboring District 34, where his friend, Filemón Vela, conveniently retired from Congress, after four terms, to become a lobbyist.
Although Gonzalez cited his residence ending up on the wrong side of the gerrymandered district as the reason for switching, many inside the local Democratic Party felt he should’ve stayed. Some even allege that he asked Republican gerrymanders to redistrict him, seeing how he barely beat De la Cruz in 2020. His 2020 campaign briefly believed, receiving incomplete results, that he’d lost, according to sources.
This time, De La Cruz outspent Vallejo by double. Vallejo’s supporters complained that the national Democratic Party only focused on keeping incumbents like Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar in office, effectively abandoning her. The DCCC rebuffed this allegation, pointing to its over $7 million spent in South Texas this cycle, as well as its setting-up-shop in the region since last spring. Considering how close De la Cruz came to beating Gonzalez in 2020, despite being outspent by the same amount as Vallejo, we can see that money isn’t everything. This seems more to be excuse-making and finger-pointing for the embarrassing loss.
Why Vallejo Really Lost
Vallejo’s campaign possessed obvious flaws. Aside from running on an outdated “Progressive” platform, Vallejo had no operation in the northern, rural counties, which she effectively ceded. Sources close to the campaign say only one staffer for Vallejo was employed up north. Indeed, her campaign headquarters were located in McAllen, in the heart of ultra-safe Hidalgo County, which was likely to go Democrat in any case, despite De la Cruz’s rising support and funding.
Sure enough, Vallejo safely won Hidalgo and got clobbered in the north, just as Hillary Clinton got crushed in the ‘fly-over' states she ignored in 2016.
Vallejo won Hidalgo by 11,708 votes, or 12.6 points. In northernmost Guadalupe County, however, De la Cruz picked up 8,775 more votes than Vallejo, or 70%. In Karnes, DLC picked up 2,947 votes over Vallejo’s 726, or approximately 80%. In Live Oak, DLC won with 3,395 votes, or approximately 85%, over Vallejo’s 534 votes. In Wilson, DLC won with 14,824 votes, or 70%, over Vallejo’s 4,122 votes.
Jim Wells was a tighter race, but De la Cruz still won by several hundred votes. The only county Vallejo won, other than Hidalgo, was neighboring Brooks, by only a few hundred. De la Cruz carried 5 of the 7 counties in District 15.
As in 2020, 15’s northern rural counties came out for Republicans. Gonzalez lost the same counties as Vallejo, but by fewer points. In Live Oak, for instance, De la Cruz received more votes than she did in 2020 when turnout was higher. Vallejo, of course, received fewer votes in Live Oak than Gonzalez. Gonzalez likewise relied on Hidalgo and Brooks for the bulk of his votes, a strategy that will no longer cut it.
Gonzalez survived his race in 34, beating incumbent Republican Mayra Flores, who became the first Latina/o to represent South Texas, when she won a special election, earlier this year, to replace Vela, upon his premature retirement. Cuellar survived his race as well in District 28. Turnout was much lower for both parties in District 15, however, compared to 2020. Still, 15’s northern counties carried De la Cruz to victory. 15, it’s now clear, is more than just the Rio Grande Valley.
The luckless, Robert O’Rourke, faced a similar fate to Vallejo for whom he campaigned. O’Rourke, who ran on a campaign of attacking the Second Amendment and what he viewed as Governor Abbott’s failures, without presenting any positive, galvanizing message, lost by more than a million votes, or 11 points. Like Vallejo, O’Rourke depended on populated urban areas like Dallas, Austin, McAllen, while Abbott more than made up for it in rural Texas. O’Rourke lost mightily in counties he and Biden only narrowly lost in past elections, despite raising $75 million this cycle.
Future of U.S. Politics as Capitalism Withers
Liberal state and national news outlets, who tend to align with O’Rourke-style candidates, have cast doubt on his future political prospects. The Washington Post editorialized, “Beto O’Rourke has spent 1,175 of the last 2,048 days running for office.” The Texas Tribune editorialized, “Beto O’Rourke’s political future in question after losing 3 elections.” And now, my old buddy and legendary Austin-based investigative journalist, Gus Bova, added his incisive prose to the chorus, with the pun, “Beto’s Lost Year.”
Perhaps my favorite encapsulation of O’Rourke’s prospects came from investigative journalist, Matt Taibi, who said on an election night news broadcast on the Useful Idiots podcast, upon receiving news of the gubernatorial race in Texas:
“I tweeted that Beto O’Rourke will now raise $900 million to run as head of the E.U. I mean, what other scam is there for this guy to run? He’s raised more money in losing efforts than any other candidate in history.”
Taibi added that ‘Beto’ and his ilk would have to create a new country for him to run as its president. When positing what such a country full of Betos would be called, fellow journalist and useful idiot, Aaron Mate, aptly responded: “Consultant-stan.”
They pondered about from where they would need to get the land for Consultantstan but couldn’t think of an answer. I propose they carve-out a piece of Canada.
Jokes Aside
While neither Democrats or Republicans won big in the House or Senate, it’s clear that both capitalist parties are unpalatable to the majority of the populace. Neither can win nor hold stable majorities in Congress, thereby resorting to rule by presidential edicts whenever in the Executive. Both parties won and lost races, each punished, according to the political conditions in a given region.
Working people in America don’t have a nationwide political party we can call our own. This absence is the biggest void in American politics today, and worldwide, and was probably the most resounding message vocalized in the 2022 midterms.